A new survey on the race for Member of Parliament in Kamukunji Constituency has revealed one of the closest contests seen so far ahead of the 2027 general election. The results show a complete deadlock at the top, with two candidates locked in a neck-and-neck battle that leaves little room between them.
Final Rankings Show a Dead Heat
According to the findings released by Mwelekeo Insights, Yussuf Hassan of the Democracy for the Citizen’s Party (DCP) and Simon Mbugua are tied with 31.6 percent support each.
The two men sit level at the top of the rankings, making this one of the tightest races in Nairobi’s parliamentary contests so far.
Coming in third is Alinur Mohamed of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), who has 25.2 percent.
Hussein Mohamed of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) follows with 11 percent.
A small share of respondents, just 0.6 percent, chose other candidates or remained undecided.
The equal share of support for Hassan and Mbugua paints a picture of a constituency that is deeply divided.
Neither candidate has managed to pull ahead. Every percentage point matters, and the race remains wide open. With more than a year still to go before the election, both men will need to work hard to break the deadlock and win over the remaining voters.
What the Numbers Tell Us
The fact that two candidates are tied at 31.6 percent shows how competitive Kamukunji has become.
Alinur Mohamed’s 25.2 percent places him within striking distance of the leaders.
A small shift in support could easily change the order.
Hussein Mohamed’s 11 percent shows he still has a base, though he trails the top three by a clear margin.
This kind of tight contest often means that local issues, community outreach, and personal connections will decide the final outcome. Voters in Kamukunji appear to be carefully weighing their options rather than settling early on one favourite.
About Mwelekeo Insights and Its Track Record
Mwelekeo Insights is a Kenyan research firm that focuses on understanding what the public thinks about politics, governance, the economy, social issues, and everyday life.
The organisation specialises in gathering and analysing public opinion so that citizens, leaders, and decision-makers can see clear pictures of national and local moods.
Over time, Mwelekeo Insights has carried out a wide range of studies. These include surveys on men’s attitudes towards the bride price tradition, looking at how different generations and regions view the practice today. Another major study examined how Kenyans aged 30 and above see Gen Z after the June 2024 protests, exploring generational differences and the impact of youth activism.
The firm has also researched public views on Kenya’s fiscal policies, taxation, and government spending, as well as confidence in President Ruto’s January 2025 cabinet appointees.
In the political space, Mwelekeo Insights has run many constituency and county-level surveys ahead of the 2027 elections. These cover parliamentary races, gubernatorial contests, and other elective seats across different parts of the country.
Its work aims to present findings that reflect real experiences of ordinary Kenyans.
By focusing on issues that matter in homes, workplaces, and communities, Mwelekeo Insights has built a reputation for producing research that is both accurate and easy for the public to understand.
