Kenya is now dealing with a difficult political moment, and one of the clearest explanations of this shift came from a recent conversation on Political Ringside YouTube channel.
The discussion highlighted how the absence of Raila Odinga has created a vacuum that the country, and especially ODM, is struggling to fill.
What was once a stable centre of opposition politics is now facing uncertainty, pressure and internal competition that is becoming more visible by the day.
Raila’s passing on October 15, 2025, in India, where he had been receiving treatment for diabetes and kidney complications, was met with deep sadness across the country.
Even though people knew he had health challenges, his death still felt sudden. For many Kenyans, Raila represented a long fight for democracy, fairness and political freedom. He never won the presidency despite five attempts, but he shaped Kenya’s political system in ways that many leaders never have.
After his death, his brother Oburu Odinga stepped in as the acting ODM leader, hoping to guide the party through a period that is already proving complicated.
The biggest challenge now is the power struggle growing within the party. Raila was often the one who kept disagreements from becoming crises, and his absence has exposed divisions that were always there but easier to control. Edwin Sifuna, the secretary-general, and Babu Owino, the Embakasi East MP, have become some of the names people mention as possible successors.
They both have followings, but they also represent different generations and different visions of ODM’s future. These differences are now turning into open competition. During the Political Ringside conversation, Davis Bin Oluoch explained that without Raila holding the party together, these rivalries could turn into conflicts that weaken ODM in the long run.
There is also growing concern about possible betrayals. Some ODM members may be considering moving to President William Ruto’s UDA, especially those who already worked closely with the government.
Before Raila’s death, leaders like Wycliffe Oparanya and Ali Hassan Joho accepted cabinet positions, which helped reduce earlier tensions. But now, loyalties are shifting again.
Oluoch warned that some politicians might decide to cross over for personal advantage, and this could damage ODM’s support in regions like western Kenya and the coast, where the party has been strongest.
Recent by-elections have also given mixed signals. In some areas, ODM candidates performed well, showing that supporters are still present and loyal. In other places, voters chose rival parties, suggesting they might be open to new leaders or new political messages.
These results show that Kenya’s political map is changing. Without Raila at the centre, issues like unemployment, rising costs of living and regional needs are becoming more important than traditional party loyalty.
ODM now faces a moment of truth. The party is trying to organise talks and find a way forward, but this will only work if its leaders choose unity over personal interests.
Raila built a strong political legacy, and ODM’s future will depend on whether its members can protect that legacy while finding a new path.
