The latest El Niño forecast has raised fresh concern across Kenya and other parts of the region after the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is now an almost certain chance that the weather pattern will continue into early 2027.
The global weather body has increased its probability of persistent El Niño conditions to nearly 100 per cent, up from the earlier estimate of 80 per cent.
The new forecast points to a much stronger likelihood that the phenomenon will remain in place through February 2027.In a statement shared on September 3, WMO said forecasts from its Global Producing Centres had provided a clearer picture of what could happen in the coming months.
“Forecasts from WMO’s Global Producing Centres indicate an ‘exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% that El Niño will persist through to February 2027,” WMO stated.The latest assessment marks a significant change from the previous forecast, which had placed the probability of El Niño conditions emerging at 80 per cent during the last two months.
The likelihood was expected to rise to near or above 90 per cent between September and November.
The main factor behind the changing forecast is the unusually warm water spreading across the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Scientists have been monitoring the ocean temperatures closely because changes in the Pacific can influence weather patterns far beyond the region, including rainfall and temperatures in Africa.
According to forecasters, El Niño is expected to strengthen further in the coming weeks.
The weather pattern could reach very strong intensity before reaching its peak toward the end of 2026. Its continued presence could therefore have effects lasting well into the beginning of 2027.
The warning has also drawn attention from the United Nations, with Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressing concern over the changing global climate and the increasing risk of extreme weather.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, and the world is in the danger zone for extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,” said Guterres.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has also warned that the increasing intensity of El Niño could have serious consequences for communities and economies that are already vulnerable to extreme weather.
For Kenya, the warning comes at a time when attention is increasingly focused on the possible impact of heavy rains across the Greater Horn of Africa. WMO has identified countries including Kenya, Somalia, Mozambique and Eritrea among areas that could experience significant effects from the weather pattern.
The expected rainfall could bring flooding and other forms of disruption, particularly in areas where drainage, housing and infrastructure are already under pressure.
Heavy rains can also affect roads, schools, businesses and farming activities, while increasing the risk of people being forced to leave their homes.
The potential scale of displacement is also raising concern. A new report by the Danish Refugee Council estimates that as many as 1.03 million people could be displaced by the anticipated rains.
The figure highlights the possible pressure on communities and authorities if large numbers of people are forced to move from affected areas.
For Kenya, preparations will therefore be important as the country waits for the weather pattern to develop. Authorities and communities in areas that are vulnerable to flooding may need to strengthen early warning systems, identify safe areas and prepare for possible population movements.
The latest forecast does not mean that every part of Kenya will experience the same conditions or that the predicted rainfall will affect all areas equally.
However, the near 100 per cent likelihood of El Niño persisting through February 2027 means that the possibility of prolonged weather-related disruption can no longer be treated as a distant concern.
With the forecast pointing to a strong El Niño later this year, Kenyans are now being urged to remain alert, follow official weather updates and take necessary precautions ahead of potentially heavy rainfall.
