Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi, a former UN official and experienced diplomat, has shared his views on the upcoming African Union (AU) Commission Chair elections, highlighting why Raila Odinga might struggle to secure the position.
Kituyi identified three major challenges that could work against Raila in the race, all tied to the political and regional alliances that shape AU elections.
The first major obstacle, according to Kituyi, is the influence of Francophone countries, which number 21 in total. These countries have a long-standing tradition of voting for candidates from their region whenever they have a nominee.
This means that unless Raila can convince them otherwise, they are likely to rally behind a candidate from their own bloc.
Having worked at the UN for eight years, Kituyi has a deep understanding of how such regional alliances operate in international elections, and he does not see the Francophone countries shifting their stance easily.
Another factor working against Raila is the position of Muslim-majority countries, many of which are displeased with Kenya’s foreign policy under President William Ruto.
Specifically, Kenya’s decision to align itself with Israel over the Palestine conflict in Gaza has angered several of these nations. Since Raila Odinga is widely viewed as Ruto’s candidate, these countries are unlikely to support him.
In AU elections, bloc voting is a common practice, and losing the backing of these countries would weaken Raila’s chances.Kituyi also pointed to competition within the Anglophone bloc, where Kenya belongs.
Here, Raila faces another challenge, as the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which consists of 16 member states, has already thrown its weight behind Mahamoud Ali from Djibouti.
This means that even within the English-speaking nations, Raila is not guaranteed full support. With another strong candidate in the race, his chances become even slimmer.
Kituyi stressed that AU elections are not always determined by how aggressively a candidate campaigns. He gave an example of a South African woman who previously won the AU Commission Chair position despite not engaging in a heavy campaign.
What matters most in these elections, he noted, is the alignment of political interests across different African regions. In Raila’s case, the combination of Francophone dominance, opposition from Muslim-majority nations, and competition within the Anglophone bloc puts him at a disadvantage.
Despite Raila Odinga’s long political career and experience in leadership, these underlying factors could make his bid for the AU Commission Chair a tough battle.
Kituyi’s analysis suggests that winning the election will require more than just mobilization efforts it will depend on whether Raila can navigate the political realities of AU voting blocs.
If these regional and religious dynamics remain unchanged, Raila may find it difficult to gain enough votes to secure the seat.
