Why Aliko Dangote may choose Mombasa over Tanzania for East Africa’s biggest refinery

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President Samia Suluhu Hassan on Saturday held talks with Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote in Dar es Salaam as Tanzania moves to retain a major oil refinery project that now appears to be shifting toward Kenya.

The meeting came weeks after reports suggested that Dangote was considering setting up the multibillion-shilling refinery in Mombasa instead of Tanzania. The project, which is expected to become one of East Africa’s largest petroleum facilities, has sparked strong regional competition as both countries seek to host the investment.

After the meeting, Suluhu described Dangote as an important investor in Tanzania and praised his role in supporting the country’s economy. She pointed to the Dangote Group cement factory in Mtwara as a major contributor to employment creation and industrial growth. The factory has been one of the group’s biggest investments in Tanzania and remains a key symbol of the business relationship between Dangote and the country.

Dangote had earlier shown interest in building the refinery in Tanga, Tanzania, but recent reports indicate that Mombasa may now be his preferred choice. Industry observers say Kenya’s stronger port infrastructure and larger fuel market are among the main reasons behind the possible shift.

Mombasa’s deep port offers easier access for large oil shipments and improved distribution across the region. Kenya also has a wider petroleum market and stronger links to neighboring countries that depend on imported fuel, making it a strategic location for such a large refinery.

The proposed refinery is estimated to cost between Ksh1.95 trillion and Ksh2.21 trillion. If established in Kenya, it could greatly strengthen the country’s position as a regional petroleum hub and reduce dependence on imported refined fuel products.

For Tanzania, losing the project would be a major setback, especially after earlier hopes that Tanga would host the facility. Suluhu’s meeting with Dangote is being seen as an effort to keep the investment within Tanzania and protect the country’s industrial ambitions.

The final decision on the refinery could have a major impact on East Africa’s energy sector and future economic growth.

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